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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 6 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 39 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas). Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model