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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 58

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to LV 4, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model