4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DEN
52.6%
LV
47.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Drew Lock (DEN): -0.184 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DEN starting Drew Lock in place of Teddy Bridgewater)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 23
–
LV 21
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DEN

Teddy Bridgewater QB Out Concussion
Kenny Young LB Out Concussion
Caden Sterns S Questionable Shoulder
Baron Browning LB Questionable Illness
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle
Kareem Jackson S Questionable Back
Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Foot
Mike Purcell DT Questionable Thumb
Shamar Stephen DE Questionable Knee

LV

Johnathan Abram S Out Shoulder
Darren Waller TE Doubtful Knee
Will Compton LB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Johnathan Hankins DT Questionable Back
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 13
–
LV 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:07 TD LV (11:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LV 6
  • Q2 07:30 FG DEN (7:30) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 3 – LV 7
  • Q2 00:37 FG DEN (:37) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 6 – LV 7
  • Q2 00:18 TD DEN (:18) 52-N.Muti reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – LV 7
  • Q3 10:26 TD LV (10:26) (Shotgun) 31-P.Barber left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LV 13
  • Q4 07:40 FG LV (7:40) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 13 – LV 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:47) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to LV 4, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 36%

    (7:29) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%

    (3:35) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to LV 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (7:30) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:35) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-39-N.Hobbs.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LV 27, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 33 for 6 yards (37-P.Locke).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 66%

    (:37) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 27%

    (8:03) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LV 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 66%

    (:19) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 44%

    (13:48) 4-D.Carr up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (90-D.Williams).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

    (7:40) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to 50 for 16 yards (10-D.Trufant).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:00) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to LV 11, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.