4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 56

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to LV 11, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.70 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model