4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to LA 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP