4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LA
52.0%
MIN
48.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.168 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LA 26
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LA

Greg Gaines T Questionable Ankle

MIN

C.J. Ham FB Questionable Hamstring
Adam Thielen WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 30
–
MIN 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 TD LA (7:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-S.Michel up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 06:40 FG LA (6:40) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – MIN 0
  • Q2 02:38 FG MIN (2:38) 1-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. LA 10 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:14 FG LA (:14) 8-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 13 – MIN 3
  • Q3 11:07 TD MIN (11:07) 25-A.Mattison left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – MIN 9
  • Q3 07:22 TD LA (7:22) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-B.Powell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LA 19 – MIN 10
  • Q3 01:34 FG MIN (1:34) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. LA 20 – MIN 13
  • Q4 11:42 TD LA (11:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 3-O.Beckham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – MIN 13
  • Q4 08:25 TD MIN (8:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – MIN 19
  • Q4 02:05 FG LA (2:05) 8-M.Gay 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 30 – MIN 20
  • Q4 00:36 FG MIN (:36) 1-G.Joseph 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. LA 30 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:05) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to LA 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 32%

    (10:44) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 49, and recovers at LA 49. 9-M.Stafford to MIN 49 for 2 yards (90-S.Richardson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (14:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:17) 3-J.Berry punts 47 yards to LA 16, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-B.Powell ran ob at LA 30 for 14 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 95%

    (6:40) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:12) 3-J.Berry punts 63 yards to LA 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (2:38) 1-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (:14) 8-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (11:25) 3-J.Berry punts 39 yards to LA 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to MIN 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:22) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-B.Powell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (1:34) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:05) 8-M.Gay 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 54%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to LA 26 for 16 yards (33-N.Scott).