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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 3-J.Berry punts 63 yards to LA 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model