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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 8-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.27 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model