4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 3-J.Berry punts 39 yards to LA 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model