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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model