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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 49, and recovers at LA 49. 9-M.Stafford to MIN 49 for 2 yards (90-S.Richardson).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model