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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.38 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP