Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

(9:59) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to MIA 28, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.63 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model