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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Monday 2021-12-27 · 20:15 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

MIA
76.9%
NO
23.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Ian Book (NO) -1.062 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.134 EPA/dropback (NO starting Ian Book in place of Taysom Hill)
  • NO offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.137 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Ian Book (NO) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23
–
NO 16
Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIA

No players on the report.

NO

Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Shoulder
Tre'Quan Smith WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
NO 3

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:33 TD MIA (10:33) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham (43-A.Van Ginkel) at NO 28. 40-N.Needham for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 02:16 FG MIA (2:16) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 10 – NO 0
  • Q2 02:49 FG NO (2:49) 19-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. MIA 10 – NO 3
  • Q3 05:15 TD MIA (5:15) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 5 MIA 16 – NO 3
  • Q4 12:09 FG MIA (12:09) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 20 – NO 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 41%

    (11:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-E.Winston to NO 16 for 10 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:02) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to MIA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Lewis to MIA 31 for -1 yards (80-K.Baker).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 20 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 80%

    (2:16) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIA 36, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Lewis pushed ob at MIA 45 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on MIA-9-N.Igbinoghene, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 36.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to NO 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:59) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to MIA 28, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-E.Winston to NO 25 for no gain (47-V.Biegel).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (2:49) 19-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 56%

    (:04) 7-J.Sanders 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:43) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to MIA 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (9:48) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIA 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to NO 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (14:24) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass incomplete short right [94-C.Wilkins].

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (12:09) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:23) (No Huddle) 16-I.Book right guard to NO 32 for 3 yards (52-E.Roberts; 29-Br.Jones).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 51%

    (4:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to NO 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

    (3:04) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 29-Br.Jones at MIA 25. 29-Br.Jones to MIA 33 for 8 yards (14-M.Ingram).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NO 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-E.Winston to NO 33 for 17 yards (50-C.Munson).