4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-E.Winston to NO 25 for no gain (47-V.Biegel).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model