4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 19-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model