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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 10 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 7-J.Sanders 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model