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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-E.Winston to NO 16 for 10 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model