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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model