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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 16

Miami Dolphins 17 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model