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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 3 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (No Huddle) 16-I.Book right guard to NO 32 for 3 yards (52-E.Roberts; 29-Br.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model