Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 20 – New Orleans Saints 3

(1:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NO 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-E.Winston to NO 33 for 17 yards (50-C.Munson).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.44 EP
52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -2.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model