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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to MIA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Lewis to MIA 31 for -1 yards (80-K.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model