Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIA 36, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Lewis pushed ob at MIA 45 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on MIA-9-N.Igbinoghene, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model