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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 9-E.Fry 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model