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Pittsburgh Steelers

7-7-1 HC Mike Tomlin
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

11-4 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 16:25 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread 10.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PIT
31.7%
KC
68.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.124 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.039 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Wind 22 mph
  • KC on 3 more days rest than PIT

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 18 11–25
–
KC 25 18–32
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

PIT

Pressley Harvin P Out Not injury related - personal matter
Pat Freiermuth TE Out Concussion
Chris Wormley DE Out Groin
Buddy Johnson LB Out Foot

KC

Nick Bolton LB Questionable not injury related
Travis Kelce TE Questionable not injury related
Lucas Niang T Questionable not injury related

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 10
–
KC 36

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:12 TD KC (4:12) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 01:14 TD KC (1:14) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 13-B.Pringle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 08:50 FG KC (8:50) 9-E.Fry 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend. PIT 0 – KC 17
  • Q2 02:19 TD KC (2:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – KC 23
  • Q3 09:00 TD KC (9:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 13-B.Pringle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – KC 29
  • Q3 03:37 FG PIT (3:37) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – KC 30
  • Q4 12:01 FG KC (12:01) 9-E.Fry 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend. PIT 3 – KC 33
  • Q4 09:46 FG KC (9:46) 9-E.Fry 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend. PIT 3 – KC 36
  • Q4 02:59 TD PIT (2:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – KC 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:29) 10-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to KC 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 27 for 18 yards (48-D.Tuszka).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (5:26) 45-M.Burton up the middle to PIT 1 for 2 yards (34-Te.Edmunds, 39-M.Fitzpatrick).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:53) 10-C.Waitman punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 79%

    (8:50) 9-E.Fry 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (5:08) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:28) 22-N.Harris right end pushed ob at PIT 31 for -3 yards (35-C.Ward).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (:22) 9-E.Fry 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:33) 8-J.Townsend punts 41 yards to PIT 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (3:37) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (12:01) 9-E.Fry 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (9:46) 9-E.Fry 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:28) 8-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to PIT 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 39 for 20 yards (31-Da.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 81%

    (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 81-Z.Gentry to KC 19 for 6 yards (44-D.O'Daniel).

    See the full breakdown →