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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model