4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 10-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to KC 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 27 for 18 yards (48-D.Tuszka).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model