Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(13:33) 8-J.Townsend punts 41 yards to PIT 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model