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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 33 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 9-E.Fry 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model