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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 36

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.81 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model