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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 36 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 8-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to PIT 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 39 for 20 yards (31-Da.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.47 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model