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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 36

What Actually Happened

(:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 81-Z.Gentry to KC 19 for 6 yards (44-D.O'Daniel).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.25 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP