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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.23 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model