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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

CAR
44.8%
NO
55.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Taysom Hill (NO) -0.229 vs Sam Darnold (CAR) -0.151 EPA/dropback (NO starting Taysom Hill in place of Ian Book)
  • NO defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
NO 20
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CAR

Stephon Gilmore CB Out Groin
Cameron Erving T Doubtful Calf
Sean Chandler S Doubtful Groin
Juston Burris S Questionable Groin
Jermaine Carter LB Questionable Groin
C.J. Henderson CB Questionable Shoulder

NO

Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Chest
Erik McCoy C Questionable Illness
Marcus Williams S Questionable Illness
Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR Questionable Illness
Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Back
Carl Granderson DE Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
NO 18

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:09 FG CAR (8:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 04:09 FG NO (4:09) 19-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CAR 3 – NO 3
  • Q2 13:22 TD CAR (13:22) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – NO 3
  • Q2 08:45 FG NO (8:45) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CAR 10 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG NO (:02) 19-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CAR 10 – NO 9
  • Q3 02:10 FG NO (2:10) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. CAR 10 – NO 12
  • Q4 07:55 TD NO (7:55) 7-T.Hill pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 0, YAC 12 CAR 10 – NO 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (8:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (4:09) 19-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (8:45) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:13) 10-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to NO 20 for 1 yard (16-B.Zylstra).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 20 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (3:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to CAR 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:04) 10-L.Edwards punts 62 yards to NO 6, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 27 for 21 yards (4-J.Carter). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8. Penalty on NO-32-B.Thompson, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:04) 10-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to CAR 49, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to CAR 47 for 2 yards (23-S.Thomas-Oliver).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 51%

    (6:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to CAR 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:25) 10-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to CAR 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to CAR 38 for 3 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (2:10) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (12:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:23) 10-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to NO 41, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 20 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (4:13) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.