4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model