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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 10-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to NO 20 for 1 yard (16-B.Zylstra).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model