Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 10-L.Edwards punts 62 yards to NO 6, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 27 for 21 yards (4-J.Carter). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8. Penalty on NO-32-B.Thompson, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.09 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model