Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 9

(8:04) 10-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to CAR 49, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to CAR 47 for 2 yards (23-S.Thomas-Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.57 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 90, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model