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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 9 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to CAR 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model