Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 96

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 9

(4:25) 10-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to CAR 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to CAR 38 for 3 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -4.00 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.80 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 96, worth -5.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model