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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model