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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 18

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 10-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to NO 41, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model