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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Shotgun) 9-K.Hinton pass short right to 3-D.Lock to LAC 1 for 1 yard (25-C.Harris; 97-J.Bosa) [24-N.Adderley].

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model