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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
@
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DEN
39.0%
LAC
61.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.126 vs Drew Lock (DEN) -0.149 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DEN

Teddy Bridgewater QB Out Concussion
Courtland Sutton WR Questionable Illness
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Shoulder
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Thumb
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle
Kareem Jackson S Questionable Back
Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Foot
Shamar Stephen DE Questionable Knee
Javonte Williams RB Questionable Knee
Kenny Young LB Questionable Concussion

LAC

Drue Tranquill LB Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 13
–
LAC 34

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:54 TD LAC (11:54) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 11:29 FG LAC (11:29) 6-D.Hopkins 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. DEN 0 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:19 TD LAC (:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LAC 16
  • Q2 00:02 FG DEN (:02) 8-B.McManus 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 3 – LAC 17
  • Q3 07:12 FG LAC (7:12) 6-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. DEN 3 – LAC 20
  • Q4 14:56 FG DEN (14:56) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 6 – LAC 20
  • Q4 14:53 TD LAC 8-B.McManus kicks 66 yards from DEN 35 to LAC -1. 7-A.Roberts for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 26
  • Q4 10:26 TD LAC (10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 33
  • Q4 06:35 TD DEN (6:35) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – LAC 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 32%

    (9:14) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (97-J.Bosa).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 49%

    (7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%

    (6:13) 1-T.Long punts 25 yards to DEN 19, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:10) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to LAC 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:20) 1-T.Long punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 15 for 4 yards (22-J.Jackson).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:24) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LAC 29, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 30 for 1 yard (37-P.Locke).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.19 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (11:29) 6-D.Hopkins 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 9-K.Hinton pass short right to 3-D.Lock to LAC 1 for 1 yard (25-C.Harris; 97-J.Bosa) [24-N.Adderley].

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (3:24) 1-T.Long punts 42 yards to DEN 48, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-37-K.Hall at DEN 49.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 56%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at DEN 30 for 11 yards (22-K.Jackson) [37-P.Locke].

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 27%

    (12:59) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 17 for 4 yards (37-P.Locke, 94-A.Patrick).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (7:12) 6-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (14:56) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 41%

    (11:26) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.