4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at DEN 30 for 11 yards (22-K.Jackson) [37-P.Locke].

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.27 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model