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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 53

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 17 for 4 yards (37-P.Locke, 94-A.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP