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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 3 at the 47
Denver Broncos 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 27
What Actually Happened
(11:26) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.
The Three Options
GO
+0.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.58 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK
-0.98 EP
- 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
- 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT
-0.79 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.79 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
