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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 6 at the 44
Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).
The Three Options
GO
-0.25 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.17 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.59 EP
KICK
-0.72 EP
- 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
- 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
