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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 1-T.Long punts 25 yards to DEN 19, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model